Kalshi CEO: New CFTC Rule, Major League Deal Coming
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said this week that the prediction-market platform expects both a new CFTC rule clarifying the legal status of its sports-event contracts and a formal agreement with one of the two major sports leagues it hasn't yet struck a deal with — the NBA or NFL — within the next few weeks to months. The comments came as Kalshi works through the fallout of a Ninth Circuit ruling that found its sports contracts function as sports betting, adding a new layer of legal uncertainty in Nevada.
What Mansour said about the rule
According to Mansour, the CFTC is preparing a new rule addressing Rule 40.11 of the Commodity Exchange Act — the provision that lets the agency deem a contract against the public interest if it involves gaming. He said the announcements so far have "centered on Rule 40.11," but that a new rule "coming in the next few weeks or next few months" is expected to clarify how it applies to sports-event contracts specifically.
League deals: NHL and MLB done, NBA and NFL still open
Kalshi already has an agreement in place with the NHL and, as of last week, deals with five MLB teams. Mansour said bettors "should expect announcements very soon, at least from one of the two remaining major leagues" — a reference to the NBA and NFL, the two leagues Kalshi has not yet reached agreements with. Rival prediction-market operator Polymarket has its own separate arrangements with MLS and MLB.
The Nevada ruling looms over the timing
The push for new clarity comes directly on the heels of the Ninth Circuit's ruling that Kalshi's sports-event contracts amount to sports betting under Nevada law — a decision Mansour acknowledged added real legal uncertainty for the company. Asked about it directly, he said, "It added more legal uncertainty than there was before. It's hard to argue with that." He pushed back on characterizations of Kalshi as functioning like a licensed sportsbook, describing its platform as a trading venue comparable to financial markets rather than a betting product, and pointing to professional traders among its user base as evidence of that framing.
Why it matters for bettors
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have become a significant, unregulated-by-state-gaming-law alternative to licensed sportsbooks in states where traditional sports betting isn't legal, and their legal status has been contested state by state through lawsuits, court rulings, and now a pending federal rule. A clearer CFTC rule and formal league partnerships — which typically bring data-sharing and integrity-monitoring arrangements similar to what licensed sportsbooks already have with leagues — would mark a significant step toward these platforms operating on more stable legal footing nationally, rather than facing the state-by-state patchwork of restrictions and lawsuits that has defined the last several months.