AGA: NFL Betting Handle Flat as Prediction Markets Grow
The American Gaming Association projects $29.5 billion in legal NFL wagering for the 2026 season, essentially flat against last year's $29.4 billion — the first time the AGA has recorded zero year-over-year growth in legal NFL handle since the market began expanding after the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018. The trade group pins the plateau squarely on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which it says are pulling wagering activity away from regulated sportsbooks.
A first-of-its-kind plateau
Every prior NFL season since legalization has posted year-over-year growth in legal handle as more states came online and existing markets matured. This year's essentially flat total breaks that streak, and the AGA is explicit about where it thinks the volume went: prediction markets offering sports-linked event contracts nationwide, including in states that haven't legalized traditional sports betting at all. AGA president and CEO Bill Miller called the platforms "dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment."
The numbers behind the claim
The AGA's release points to sports contracts making up roughly 80% of Kalshi's overall trading volume, and estimates that about $5.1 billion of that volume comes from users between 18 and 20 years old — below the legal sports betting age in 35 of the 40 US jurisdictions with regulated sports betting. The trade group also estimates prediction market platforms have diverted more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025, since that activity sits outside the tax and licensing structure that applies to regulated sportsbooks.
Why it matters for bettors
The report doesn't change what's legal in any individual state, but it sharpens an already-heated fight between the traditional gaming industry and prediction market operators over whether platforms like Kalshi need to be licensed and taxed as sports betting rather than regulated as financial derivatives by the CFTC. That legal question is already working its way through multiple state courts and at least one federal circuit split, and its outcome could eventually affect where and how these platforms can keep operating. For now, bettors in states with legal, regulated sportsbooks aren't affected directly — but the numbers underscore how much betting-style volume is now flowing through a channel with fewer consumer protections and no state tax obligation.
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